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The TPP: What Might it Mean for Agriculture?

Note: In this post, I have excerpted some of the key statements from recent USDA reports on the TPP and what it might mean in dollar and percentage numbers for agricultural exports and imports, especially for the United States. –Kay M.



(credit: wikimedia. Note that not all of the blue on this map is included in the TPP.)

The proposed Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) is a trade and investment agreement under negotiation by 12 countries in the Pacific Rim, including the United States.

The twelve countries are Australia, Brunei Darussaiam, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, United States, and Vietnam.

With a combined population of about 800 million and a combined gross domestic product (GDP) of about $28 trillion, these 12 countries encompassed 11 percent of global population and almost 40 percent of global GDP in 2012. The total size of their market for agricultural imports averaged $279 billion over 2010-12, 51 percent of which was sourced from TPP partners. The TPP accounts for 42 percent of the global agricultural exports of the United States and 47 percent of its agricultural imports.

[…]

Cutting tariffs is only one of the many goals of the TPP negotiations, but it is an important one for agricultural trade. The value of intraregional agricultural trade in 2025 under a tariff-free, TRQ-free scenario is estimated to be 6 percent, or about $8.5 billion higher (in 2007 U.S. dollars) compared with baseline values. U.S. agricultural exports to the region will be 5 percent, or about $3 billion higher, and U.S. agricultural imports from the region in 2025 will be 2 percent, or $1 billion higher in value compared with the baseline.

[…]

By commodity, the percentage increase in the value of intraregional trade due to the elimination of tariffs and TRQs will be largest for rice, sugar, and “other meat” (which includes animal fats and oils and offals); in absolute value terms, the increase will be greatest for bovine meat (which includes beef and mutton), “other foods” (which includes processed foods and feeds), and poultry meat. The total increased trade in meats of about $3.7 billion will account for 43 percent of the expansion in the value of intra-TPP trade in 2025, most of which is supplied by Australia, the United States, Canada, and New Zealand. About three-quarters of the increase in meat exports is destined for Japan, whose meat imports (mostly bovine and poultry meats) from TPP members will increase by about $2.8 billion relative to the baseline.


To learn more:

http://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/err-economic-research-report/err176.aspx

http://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/eib-economic-information-bulletin/eib-129.aspx

http://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/eib-economic-information-bulletin/eib-130.aspx

Growth of Mobile Phone Use for Agriculture Markets


Map of 850,000 mobile phone visits to CME website in 2013

This was a rather impressive map and statistics from CME group showing the rapid growth of mobile device use accessing markets. I might add that though I haven’t kept track of numbers, it seems that rather suddenly many of this site’s readers are also now accessing through mobile phones. (The current percent for this site is 40 percent mobile devices but I’ve seen some days higher than that.)

Here’s what CME had to say…

The number of people accessing agricultural market data through mobile devices is increasing. That’s not a surprise. More than half of American farmers own a smartphone.

What’s surprising is the rate at which mobile growth is happening. Since 2011, the number of those accessing grains and livestock pricing on the CME Group website through a mobile phone or tablet has increased 210 percent, to about 850,000 unique mobile visits in 2013.


Source: http://openmarkets.cmegroup.com/8343/infographic-the-growth-of-mobile-in-ag-markets